We all now know that HMNY filed an 8K that set off alarm bells, causing a media panic claiming MP was close to running out of cash, sinking the stock 60% in two days.
The specific statement read.
As of April 30, 2018, we had approximately $15.5 million in available cash and approximately $27.9 million on deposit with our merchant processors for a total of approximately $43.4 million. The funds held by our merchant processors represent a portion of the payments received for annual and other extended term MoviePass subscription plans, which we classify as accounts receivable on our balance sheet and which we expect to be disbursed to us during the course of 2018. We believe that our average cash deficit has been approximately $21.7 million per month from September 30, 2017 to April 30, 2018. By the end of April 2018, we implemented certain measures to promote the fair use of our MoviePass subscription product, which we believe should reduce our monthly cash deficit significantly. These measures include a technological enhancement which prevents MoviePass subscribers from sharing their accounts with non-subscribers and allowing subscribers to see a movie title only once per subscriber using the MoviePass subscription. We believe these measures enabled us to reduce our cash deficit during the first week of May 2018 by more than 35%. In addition, by returning to our $9.95 per month unlimited MoviePass subscription, enabling subscribers to see up to one new movie title per day, we believe our subscriber acquisitions and subscription revenues will continue to increase for the foreseeable future. However, we will need proceeds from sales of our common stock pursuant to our Equity Distribution Agreement with Canaccord Genuity, or other sources of capital, starting in May 2018. Further, if we use all or a portion of the anticipated net proceeds from sales of our common stock pursuant to our Equity Distribution Agreement with Canaccord Genuity for acquisitions of other companies or financial interests in additional movies (through our subsidiary, MoviePass Ventures), we will need additional capital to offset our monthly cash deficit. In 2018, we expect our cash deficit from month to month will vary significantly based on the amount of movie tickets MoviePass is required to purchase for its subscribers during the month, the amount we spend on acquiring financial interests in additional movies through MoviePass Ventures, the amount we may spend on any other types of acquisitions, and our ability to develop the MoviePass business model in the near term generally, including developing and growing sources of revenue other than subscription revenue. Because the length of time and costs associated with the development of the MoviePass and MoviePass Ventures business model is highly uncertain, we are unable to estimate the actual funds we will require. If we are unable to obtain sufficient amounts of additional capital, whether through our Equity Distribution Agreement or otherwise, we may be required to reduce the scope of our planned growth or otherwise alter our business model, objectives and operations, which could harm our business, financial condition and operating results.
But many of us could not figure out WHY the company came out with this statement, and why NOW?! There was very little new news in the statement. If you break it down, the company said they will need to raise more cash, which they have already said they had planned to do by selling shares, and they said they would do this as they needed the funds. So that was nothing new. The cash burn level reported was also not new news. Mitch and Ted have both said that they were burning in the $20M a month range in several previous interviews. The statement also said that management had taken steps to reduce COGS, and that by adding the limitation of only seeing a title one time, and enforcing photos of ticket stubs, had reduced usage and fraud, helping to bring usage down more than 35%. This was great news, but it had also been mentioned in prior interviews earlier in the week. Nothing really new again!
So why then did HMNY – MoviePass -feel the need to release this 8K at all? I have researched this, and the answer is that this is a requirement that they must fulfill by SEC regulation based on that fact that they are operating under a “going concern” audit finding. The going concern part of this is nothing new. In fact, it has been known for some time now. What most investors do not realize is that once you have this finding attached to your company, the disclosure rules for the company change.
This is a complicated bit of accounting rules and regulations and if you want all the details you can read them here. But the cliff notes version is that any updates both positive and negative that could significantly impact the “going concern” status of the company must be announced as they occur. So the changes to MoviePass to reduce cash burn had to be disclosed. And with those changes, the change to the cash position, and the intention to stick to the plan of raising more money with additional stock, also had to be disclosed. Regardless of the fact that both of these things were already known by investors who were closely following the company.
To put a fine point on it – new developments that are POSITIVE – that will help reduce the “going-concern” issue with the company, must be disclosed.
“The going-concern standard explains that these disclosures may change over time as new information becomes available and that disclosure of how the substantial doubt was resolved is required in the period in which substantial doubt no longer exists (before or after consideration of management’s plans). In addition, the going-concern standard states that the mitigating effects of management’s plans to alleviate substantial doubt should be evaluated only if (1) the plans are approved before the financial statement issuance date and (2) dboth of the following conditions are met: a. It is probable that management’s plans will be effectively implemented within one year after the date that the financial statements are issued. b. It is probable that management’s plans, when implemented, will mitigate the relevant conditions or events that raise substantial doubt about the entity’s ability to continue as a going concern within one year after the date that the financial statements are issued.”
It is reasonable to believe that Mitch and Ted actually believed that the filing was routine and that there was some substantially positive news in the filing that had only been mentioned one or two times in TV interviews, and this filing would make it official that MoviePass is making great progress in moving toward a more profitable future.
Unfortunately, the 8K hit within less than 24 hours of AMC CEO Adam Aron throwing MoviePass under the bus. Adam made a bunch of nasty and false comments on how MoviePass was certain to be in a death spiral. And made a bunch of false assertions on usage amongst other bizarre comments.
The timing could not have been worse for HMNY to release the 8K, it set off a literal $hit storm of bad headlines, causing retail investors to panic sell the stock.
Was this bad execution on the part of HMNY? Probably – however as SEC forms go, it takes a few days to file them and companies may not know exactly what day the form will hit the SEC website. So maybe it was just unfortunate bad timing.
Should HMNY and MoviePass do more to stop the stock price from falling? Maybe, but there could be other restrictions they are under for releasing information. We are close to ER, where there is normally a quiet period prior. Also, we don’t know what is happening with the final acquisition of MoviePass and the rebranding of HMNY to MoviePass. Also, we don’t know what is happening with the spinoff of Zone and if there is a quiet period there.
It is actually possible that this entire episode is very much ado about nothing. And that Mitch and Ted both have their hands tied in how much more they can really say to calm investors fear of near-term Bankruptcy. Afterall, Farnsworth and Lowe have both stated in separate interviews that they are confident they have plenty of options for additional funding and that they at least are not worried at all about insolvency.
My conclusion, the drop was scary and shook out a lot of early shareholders and retail investors who just don’t have the stomach to take these kinds of losses, even if they are just on paper until you sell. The series of events was a great gift to the short sellers who are paying big money to short this stock because they don’t believe in the model, or they have ulterior motives for wanting to have HMNY not be successful.
It seems unlikely that HMNY is headed for Bankruptcy anytime soon given they have virtually zero debt, and a lot of options to keep on trucking as a “going concern”.
My view – if you liked this stock at $7 or $4 or even $2 – you should love the stock NOW at .85 cents!
Nothing significant has really changed! Go review all the video interviews I have cataloged here. You will see that the story has been consistent, that there was really no big new news at all, and that Farnsworth and Lowe consistently have said they would need to raise more money as they built out a 5 Million user subscriber base.
Don’t let greedy Wall Street hedge funds and sneaky short attacks from competitors like AMC scare you out of what will be a great long term investment! Hang in there, average down if you can stomach it.
As Mark Twain once said.
“The rumors of my death have been greatly exaggerated”