MoviePass Kills the Hogs!

Moviepass killed the hogs today.  They should have done it sooner, but, better late than never.  Peak Pricing dies, and ticket stub verification also dies.

The company is fighting to survive, and I think this will probably seal the deal for survival.

Essentially what MoviePass did was spend about $400 Million Dollars to buy about that much press to build their brand.  The question now is was it all worth it?   Time will tell if the new more sustainable plan is attractive to a large set of consumers and if MoviePass will continue to grow, or if it will just fizzle out into a smaller set of customers who are interested in a few movies a month.   It is still a good deal for consumers, but it certainly is no longer the “no-brainer” offer that gripped consumers imagination.

I do believe the tarnished brand of Moviepass can recover.  Moviepass is working to make going to the theater more affordable, the core of that brand remains.    IMO this is not a situation where the brand has taken irreversible damage.   They did not kill anybody, (many big brands have), they did not purposefully set out to defraud consumers, they did offer a fantastic deal while it lasted.   I think consumers can largely accept that.   I also think consumers can understand that some people simply abuse a system, and a few bad apples can ruin the entire bunch – or program in this case.

Will this new plan finally bring sustainability to Moviepass?

Utilization is now guaranteed to drop down to a much more reasonable number.   I will be updating a new model later today.  Moviepass states that 85% of customers were already below the 3 movies a month mark.  This move is going to ensure a utilization factor of somewhere under 1.5 I believe.

Readers here know that I have always said that MoviePass holds all the levers in their plan, and their Terms of Service was always set up to allow them to control costs and “do what they have to do” to avoid BK.

I do believe that these changes will provide a path of MoviePass to get to sustainability.   The question I don’t have an answer to yet is how much demand there will be for the new program, and if it will end up being a much smaller niche business for a very long time, or if it will be able to continue to grow and become a major player in the entertainment space.  Time will tell.

I actually think Moviepass becomes a compelling stock at these low levels, and with these changes.   Again, less than 2% of your portfolio, and DO NOT bet your life savings on this thing.   That would be really stupid.

 

Moviepass Push On Spy Who Dumped Me- Worked!

Looking at Box Office Mojo it appears that the big MP push of Spy Who Dumped Me really worked wonders for the film. Pushing the film to a solid 3rd place for the weekend – and a solid $12M opening. For a B rated film, with heavy competition, this is a great showing.

Sure Christopher Robin and MI were ahead. But they would have done way better if MP had supported them.

Overall, the squeeze from Moviepass is taking Box Office receipts down. No doubt about it. Greedy Hollywood is going to see volume sink.

But there is a faint light at the end of a very long and dark tunnel here. If MP can consistently put major wood behind a film and bump it up big in it’s showing, theaters and studios alike will be weary of ignoring their power.

How long can MP hang in there, and how many customers will stick with them to see smaller films at odd times on the cheap? Who knows?!

But you can bet Hollywood is watching this closely. The grand experiment continues.

It’s Another Brutal Weekend For MP on Social Media

Moviepass is heavily promoting “The Spy Who Dumped Me” Tweeting out a recommendation that people should go see it.

They have also promoted the film heavily in the Moviepass App.

The app shows it is a available at a theater near me. But I am in a really remote area this weekend.

The response on Twitter is not good. Lots of people complaining that the film does not have any showings available. And a lot of people saying they drove to the theater after seeing it was available only to find out it was not when they got to the theater.

That is a terrible experience. And I could see why people would quit after that happening.

MP is still learning. But analytics really does not seem to be a strong suit for the company. Seriously they can’t use their data analytics to predict demand and not send people out to only disappointment them later. Geeesh

Moviepass Likely to Lose Half Of Its Subscribers – That Might Help it Stay Alive

I think the new more intense savings measures put in place by Moviepass and the competition from AMC and others looks like it could cause Moviepass to lose around half of its subscriber base. Because Moviepass loses money on most of these subscribers, shedding them may actually help the company limp along a bit more.

Based on feedback from readers, polls done across Twitter and Facebook, and the unrelenting bad press for Moviepass, I have updated my apocalypse model to show a much larger and steep decline of subscribers for Moviepass.

I think only about half of the existing customer base will accept the new restrictions, and I think a lot of the true movie fans will bail for other services. Luckily losing the heaviest users is good for MP cost savings, and this will likely result in a much lower utilization factor for the remaining subs.

I have dropped my sub guesstimates down to 1.5M by the end of this month. And I see the new growth slowing considerably. I leave some hope that MP clarifies a strategy more, and people actually start signing back up near the holiday season again.

Interestingly- these changes still leave the company with a fighting chance to survive.

No this will not make the stock magically recover. But it does buy the company some much needed time to settle things down. And it will also likely put pressure on theaters and studios who are about to see consumers turn away from the theaters big time from the new sticker shock reality of paying full price again.

Moviepass Needs to Totally Drop the Hammer on AMC

If it is a war as Ted Farnsworth has stated, why not fight like your in one. Time for beleaguered MP to totally shut down all AMC theaters where there is ANY viable alternative.

Why give AMC one more single ticket worth of Revenue. It’s not like Moviepass is saving their reputation at this point, that bridge has been long crossed.

MP needs to go further than strong talk. If it is war – start acting like it!